The Talking Moose (thetalkingmoose) wrote,
The Talking Moose

Nine Left, Behind By Two

That's the Wild Card scenario the Phillies face. I still don't think they're going to make it, but they still have a fighting chance (although, Baseball Prospectus now pegs it at 22.4%). The one thing they finally have in their favor: the schedule, which was their enemy when the month started. Here's what the Phils and Astros have left:

vs. Team PCT Home Away Total
St. Louis .623 0 2 2
Chicago .490 4 3 7
TOTAL .520 4 5 9

vs. Team PCT Home Away Total
Washington .510 0 3 3
New York .493 3 0 3
Cincinnati .467 0 3 3
TOTAL .490 3 6 9

The key here is the St. Louis series. If St. Louis shows up to play, the Phillies can get some much needed help, but if St. Louis decides to phone it in while they prepare for the post-season, I'd say that 22% chance drops to about 5%.

However it unfolds, the Phillies' last series is in DC. It would be nice to have the chance to attend a couple late season games that actually mean something. We'll see.
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