The key here is the St. Louis series. If St. Louis shows up to play, the Phillies can get some much needed help, but if St. Louis decides to phone it in while they prepare for the post-season, I'd say that 22% chance drops to about 5%.
However it unfolds, the Phillies' last series is in DC. It would be nice to have the chance to attend a couple late season games that actually mean something. We'll see.